How a trade for Mike Conley could aid the Knicks and pull the Jazz out of salary hell

Despite a limited market for salary dumps this offseason, Mike Conley Jr. of the Utah Jazz could exist a sneaky candidate for the Knicks to pursue. Could a trade for Conley aid both the Knicks and the Jazz for years to come?

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They say the best things come up in threes: The iii little pigs, the Marx Brothers, and glory deaths are all examples of this. While teams like the Celtics and the Rut have found success with the number three, the Knicks have not. Although, that could very easily change this offseason cheers to the Utah Jazz.

First, the Knicks poached Walt Perrin from the Jazz. Secondly, New York lured Johnnie Bryant. And so third is naturally Donovan Mitchell, right? Uh, no.

Yeah, in that location was that one fleeting stretch of time, spanning from the culmination of a tepid spring through a summer when the just thing hotter than the atmospheric condition were the flames stoked by bigotry and ignorance, where the homo they call "Spida" was a Knick. Well, he wasn't actually a Knick, just it felt imminent. And sure, it was never actually imminent, simply it was fun to dream for a minute.

Times are tough in the age of COVID. Final calendar month, The Salt Lake Tribune published an article pondering the hypothetical of Mike Conley Jr. opting out and re-signing for more coin over more years. The author himself acknowledged that the odds of this were less than nil (and Conley did somewhen decide not to exercise his ETO anyway), only that's non what stood out to me the most:

Long story short, the Jazz are looking at going into the luxury tax. [Jazz general manager] Dennis Lindsey has said before he has permission from the Miller family to do so if he can demonstrate he's built a contender … and all the same, the Jazz have gone into the luxury revenue enhancement exactly ane fourth dimension in the by decade. Given that the Larry H. Miller Grouping of Companies laid off some staff and Larry H. Miller Sports & Entertainment furloughed hundreds more than during the pandemic, and given that the pandemic is hardly abating, what are the odds this coming flavor will be one where buying decides to give management carte blanche to spend any?

For total disclosure, I had this article written and saved in my dorsum pocket weeks ago. Nothing could get wrong, I thought. Just need to await until we get financials and this baby volition be born. And then, the Miller family went ahead and sold a majority stake of the Jazz to billionaire Ryan Smith. There are xxx teams in the NBA and the i I don't usually dissect had to undergo a major modify? Swell. Merely neat. That's show biz, baby!

Smith is living out every sports fan's dream of owning your childhood team. Perchance Smith is more willing to pay the luxury tax than the Millers were. Until nosotros run into money beingness spent, we simply don't know his comfort level. After all, the rich like to stay rich: having money does not necessarily mean there'southward an interest in consistently spending it. Still if Smith is weighing the pros and cons of spending this year versus not, he should discover that this is non the year to be a tax-level team if you're the Jazz.

The NBA recently appear that the salary cap for the 2020-21 flavor will be $109.14 1000000 again, and the tax line starts at $132.627 one thousand thousand once more. If you're the Knicks, this is fine, since you have oodles of cap space. More cap space would have meant more spending power, whereas less could have more than owners in a panic over having likewise much coin on the books. If you're the Jazz, well, you lot might have to make some tough fiscal decisions.

Let's begin with side by side flavor for Utah. Now that Conley Jr. did not exercise his early on termination pick and will remain with Utah, the Jazz take a ton of money on the books this upcoming twelvemonth. The fact that the luxury tax did not increase could be a killer for them.

Utah has to take Jordan Clarkson'south side by side contract, their commencement-circular pick's salary, the mid-level exception (MLE), and the bi-almanac exception (BAE) into account. Information technology's fine that the Jazz are above the salary cap, merely they are in dangerous territory with regard to that revenue enhancement number.

If Clarkson secures a contract starting at $ten million a year, and if the Jazz sign Role player Ten to the full, non-taxpayer MLE at two years and $20 million, that's about $19 million in boosted bacon commitments this upcoming year. Signing Player X for anything more what'due south equal to the taxpayer MLE ($5,718,000) would hard cap the Jazz, significant they tin spend up to $138,928,000. Except that number is largely irrelevant, considering we want the Jazz to go beneath the revenue enhancement line of $132,627,000 anyway. Anything over that taxation line is bad if the plan is notwithstanding to be frugal.

Suppose the Jazz do decide to splurge this year and go into the tax. Hither is the tax table:

Meet that not-repeater section? That would be where the Jazz observe themselves this year. The tax rate ways that for every dollar the Jazz spend, it is multiplied past the listed corporeality. If a team is, for example, $4 1000000 above the luxury tax, you multiply that amount past $1.50, which equals $six one thousand thousand. Then that squad would pay their entire payroll, plus luxury taxes, all while at that place are no fans in omnipresence.

Next we'll examine the 2021-22 Jazz, because that the 2021-22 salary cap tin can range from $112.4 million to $120 meg and the luxury revenue enhancement is probably fluctuating between around $135 million and effectually $145 1000000:

  1. Mitchell's max contract would be at to the lowest degree $28 meg if the salary cap is on the lowest finish.

  2. Re-signing a 29-year-old Rudy Gobert to a contract starting at even $three one thousand thousand greater than what he'southward earning this year puts him at $30.5 million.

  3. Bojan Bogdanović, 32, is earning $18.7 million, Joe Ingles, 34, is on the books for $13 one thousand thousand, and Utah'south on the claw for Royce O'Neale, 28, and his $8.eight million.

  4. Assuming Utah keeps Clarkson, 29, in the previous offseason, the 2nd twelvemonth of his contract (with an 8 percent raise) could be about $11 million.

  5. If Utah re-signs Tony Bradley, 24, to anything to a higher place his $v.3 million cap hold, the total increases to over $118 meg.

  6. Player X, signed with the MLE in 2020 to a two-year deal, will earn $10 million in his second year.

  7. Utah's 2020 first round pick will cost $2.4 million in 2021 and Utah's 2021 starting time (if it isn't conveyed to Memphis) should be at least $2 meg.

Nosotros're now at 10 players making about $130 million. So we accept to account for two cap holds, plus the Jazz must take 13 players on the roster, and then that brings us to roughly $133 1000000. Fifty-fifty if the Jazz renounced Bradley's cap agree or not-guaranteed their other players, they're all the same well over the cap and could exist close to the luxury tax again, especially if they use their MLE once again.

If the Jazz are above the tax line in the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons, they'll become hit with the repeater tax later that second year. So if Utah pays anywhere upwards to $4,999,999 higher up the tax line this flavor and side by side, they're taxed $2.l for every dollar they spend instead of $one.fifty like the previous year. Between payroll and taxes, that's over $275 million spent in two years for a team with lower profits that will struggle to win a playoff series.

So the question for Utah may not exist "Are we comfortable going into the luxury tax?" but instead "Are we comfy going into the luxury revenue enhancement this year when we know we could very easily get into information technology adjacent twelvemonth too, and thus get hit with the repeater penalization?" Yes, it appears that the Jazz have a financial dilemma on their easily. And then what is our merely possible choice here? We have to *very Oprah voice*:

Cut. Bacon. From. The. Paaaaaaayrolllllllllll!!!!!!!!

Nosotros should kickoff with the players who are unlikely to move. Mitchell is a no-go for obvious reasons. Gobert could probably exist had for the right price, but it'due south really hard to replace a ii-time Defensive Player of the Twelvemonth, and his worth volition be less since he'due south on an expiring contract with no matching rights. Bogdanović'southward value is afflicted by his contract and his injury, and trading the best gratuitous agent your franchise has signed in ages could be a bad motility. Ingles is not only a fantastic playmaking fly who can shoot the rock quite well merely is a huge fan favorite and very involved in the community, so dealing him doesn't make a ton of sense, both from an on- and off-the-court perspective. The Jazz are curt on iii&D wings under the age of 30, which is why O'Neale is important.

And then there's Conley Jr. and Ed Davis.

I'll kickoff with Davis because this should be quick. Utah gave Davis $10 one thousand thousand over two years to be what is now a third-cord backup. Over the team'south last 30 games (including playoffs), Davis logged exactly 35 minutes. He earned those minutes over the course of three games, all of which were in the bubble when the Jazz could fall to no lower than 6th in the standings. Utah will find a manner to merchandise him.

There's no sugarcoating it: Conley Jr. had a disappointing start to the season. Things started to click deeper into the season and his individual play picked upward in the bubble cheers to an almost v-month hiatus. Hopefully for his sake, he's adapted to Utah's system and can produce after another long break, this time between seasons. That seems unlikely, though.

According to Jacob E. Goldstein's PIPM actor projection tool, if we use Conley Jr.'s average usage rating percentage (25.2 percentage) and minutes played (1626) over the last five years, there is a goose egg pct chance Conley Jr. provides positive value on his contract next year. Yes, you read that correct: aught per centum. His probable value will be $five.half-dozen to $17.5 meg side by side year, which ranges from $17 to $28.9 million less than what he's set to make. The lower finish of his likely value over the next 5 years is $32 million, which ways there's a risk that Conley Jr. adds less value over the next five years than the contract he's under adjacent year. But put, Mike Conley Jr.'south name carries more weight than his current and projected play do.

Fifty-fifty if things go well for him as his historic period-33 entrada begins, how are the Jazz adding talent off the bench this yr without hitting the taxation line? And what does the future entail? And if buying still won't go into the tax, how is Utah supposed to proceed Conley Jr. later this year? If you feel yous probably won't re-sign him, does keeping him make sense? It's a ton of pressure for Conley Jr. to stay salubrious, and that's not the safest of bets.

The idea of dealing Conley Jr. is not a novel ane. In a normal offseason, he may not exist moved. But at present? Amidst a pandemic? Nosotros're not talking most his play in a vacuum; nosotros're talking about his play and how his salary affects overall spending and roster construction. We're determining that in a market with low demand, the Jazz would be operating from a indicate of weakness if they want to move him to relieve money.

Why depression demand? Well, which NBA team is bailing out Utah? It's certainly not going to be a team in the W. Skilful luck finding a team that wants Conley Jr.'south salary and is willing to part with any sort of assets for him or have the right matching pieces to send back. Nosotros turn our lonely eyes to the Eastern Conference:

  • Unless the Jazz want Cody Zeller (yuck) or Terry Rozier (double yuck), Conley Jr. isn't going to the Hornets. Trading Conley Jr. for Nicolas Batum likewise makes zero sense, since Utah's goal is to both larn depth and save some coin.

  • The Hawks take plenty of cash to spend and could use more established players. Yet what practiced is bringing in Conley Jr. when he plays the same position as your best player in Trae Immature, is but signed for one more yr, and has an injury history? If the goal for Atlanta is to compete, this isn't the move to brand. And likewise, what is Utah getting back that helps them attempt to win?

  • The Pistons could piece of work out a trade revolving effectually Blake Griffin for Mike Conley Jr. and Ed Davis. Retrieve how nosotros discussed the repeater luxury revenue enhancement in 2021-22, though? The Jazz calculation Griffin would actually mean they are even deeper into the repeater tax than if they didn't trade Conley Jr. at all and still re-signed Clarkson and signed a actor to the MLE. So I don't see Griffin going to Utah. Maybe Tony Snell and Derrick Rose for Conley, Davis, and an asset, only that tin't piece of work if Detroit re-signs Christian Forest starting at around the $12 one thousand thousand threshold, due to matching restrictions.

  • Maybe a swap betwixt the Bulls and Jazz featuring Conley Jr. and Otto Porter Jr. works, but how does trading for someone who'due south played 29 games the last two seasons assist Utah?

And finally, nosotros're left with the New York Knickerbockers. We can now transition from thestock.ton to thestrick.land.

The Jazz demand depth and, as we have decreed, must slash their payroll. The Knicks could use a playmaker, accept plenty of cap infinite, and ain the rights to several rotation-level pieces. Permit's work something out, shall we?

If the Jazz don't want to spend big with Conley, and if no other teams are focused on bailing out Utah, New York holds leverage over the Jazz. Think about how many options are available to the Knicks at indicate guard.

All Leon Rose has to practise is say "Oh, you won't adhere to my requests, Dennis? That's fine. I can let you suffer while I pluck someone like D.J. Augustin off the free amanuensis marketplace for less than ane-4th of what your precious Conley costs. See if I care." Oh, and who ameliorate to know what Utah wants and likes than Perrin, the man who worked there for most xx years? Trades are built on relationships.

In this scenario, a plausible one where ownership doesn't want to go above the tax line this year and needs to add demote pieces, Conley Jr. and Davis would demand a (protected) offset-circular pick to go out with them. Again, find me some other team willing to have on such deals for a year that can also send something of value out, and I'll probably wind up calling you a liar because I only do not see it happening. Merely I've been wrong before.

Scenario i: The Draft Night Trade

Since the salary cap volition not have reset still and the 23rd option will not count as salary on draft night, Conley Jr., Davis, and the 23rd pick would cost $37,278,623. The rule for incoming salary when the outgoing amount is at least $19.6 meg is: 125% of the outgoing bacon, plus $100,000. If we exercise it in reverse from New York's perspective, that'southward $37,278,623 - $100,000 = $37,178,623. We then divide that by 125% (or 1.25) and get $29,742,898. In other words, $29,742,898 is the minimum amount of salary New York must send on draft dark to learn Conley Jr., Davis, and the 23rd pick.

Option one is Julius Randle and Bobby Portis ($33,000,000). The Knicks would take to guarantee Portis' team option. If I'm Utah, I don't need to add ii large men, especially when Portis is extremely overpaid on the squad option. What's more than, I'm really non saving that much here if I'g the Jazz. If I'm that desperate to larn Portis, I'll expect until he's a free agent and potentially sign him using part of my MLE.

Option two is Randle, Dennis Smith Jr., and guaranteeing players similar Wayne Ellington and Reggie Bullock'south salaries ($34,663,640). This would merely salvage Utah $5,005,605 side by side flavour. The key problem with a draft night trade like this, though, is available roster spots. The Jazz can't articulate Emmanuel Mudiay (ha) or Juwan Morgan's roster spots since they're on expiring deals, so that ways they'd have to waive two not-guaranteed players who are nether contract. It's messier than it sounds.

Scenario 2: The Prearranged Agreement and Free Agency Bacon Dump

A couple weeks ago, I wrote virtually why I don't see a bacon dump marketplace taking off with big, expiring contracts. Might one exist? Absolutely. Some teams could dump a pocket-size expiring deal or ii. Yet if you're hoping for something big that involves a first-round pick, I'm dubious that will come to fruition through dumping. I as well wrote most the difference between salary dumping and bacon cutting. I left Conley Jr. off the list because I don't view him as a bacon dumping candidate, but instead as salary cut. Allow me to walk you through why dumping Conley Jr.'s salary doesn't make a ton of sense for the Jazz or the Knicks.

The Jazz dump the combined salaries of Conley Jr., Davis, and the player they drafted 23rd overall ($41,794,282) outright. New York absorbs that corporeality, leaving them with only $614,545 left to spend in gratuitous agency, assuming they non-guarantee all their non-guaranteed deals and renounce all cap holds.

This deal won't happen, because the Jazz don't need that money to sign gratis agents; they need to acquire depth via trade while shedding some salary. They'd go a massive traded thespian exception (TPE), but there are few contracts worth acquiring and they'd have to spend an asset to dump Conley Jr. and Davis, then trade another asset to larn someone to fit into the TPE. Meanwhile, the Knicks now have nothing to operate with during free agency except for the room exception. This is bad all around.

Scenario 3: The Free Agency Straight Dump

Suppose the two teams can't hold to a deal before the draft and the Knicks strike out in gratuitous bureau. Maybe now they tin take on a salary dump? No.

This once once again helps neither squad. The Knicks will be able to sign talent, though which players exactly, we're unsure of. In one case the Knicks do sign players, they have to worry about salary matching for a Jazz trade, which brings usa to our side by side scenario.

Scenario 4: The Prearranged Salary Cut Before Signing Gratuitous Agents

Then the salary dump doesn't work for either squad. What nigh a salary cut?

The Jazz and the Knicks could execute a trade every bit soon as costless bureau starts. If Utah wants to merchandise their pick but not on typhoon night, their choice would non be able to be dealt until 30 days afterwards he signs his contract. Normally, that'southward not a huge problem. Nevertheless, grooming camp starts December 1st, which is less than thirty days from the commencement of free bureau. So either the NBA changes the rule to resolve the situation or Utah and New York can't practise with their new players. For the sake of this, let's say Utah wants to keep their choice this twelvemonth and instead wishes to send a futurity first instead. Seeing as how Utah owes Memphis a protected start, let'due south establish that the Jazz are sending the Knicks a protected 2022 starting time, which is likely to be conveyed in 2024. New York prefers this option, seeing every bit how the Knicks need to start consolidating assets and a future pick makes things less urgent.

Since the Knicks have cap space, they could acquire Conley and Davis, while sending out, say, Randle, Ellington, and Smith Jr. Or they could send out Randle and Bullock. Or they could transport out Randle, Ellington, Bullock, and Elfrid Payton. The possibilities are vast, simply there'southward a grab: Salaries take to lucifer. Recollect our formula in Scenario i? Conley Jr. and Davis' 2020-21 salaries equal $39,509,482, merely then nosotros accept to subtract $100,000 and divide that difference by 1.25, giving us $31,527,586.

Randle, Payton, and Bullock brand a ton of sense for Utah. Despite the wrath of Knicks fans, Randle isn't a bad histrion. He can thrive as an expensive bench slice, but the fact that his contract is squad friendly (only $4 million guaranteed in 2021) should excite Utah, seeing as how team control is more important in such a minor market. Either Utah keeps Randle in 2021, kicks him to the adjourn for $iv million, or passes him to another squad to avoid harsher luxury tax penalties.

Payton is as well despised by some Knicks fans, just he'd also be a perfectly skilful piece off the bench for Utah. Even if the Jazz re-sign Clarkson, he's not really a betoken guard. Payton would give the team some much-needed depth at the i, and his shooting wouldn't be as much of an result, considering Utah led the NBA in 3-betoken percentage last twelvemonth.

Bullock is another demote choice, but he's cheaper than Randle and Payton. He had an injury-plagued season final year but can be the perfect eighth or ninth man while on that contract.

Okay, and so we have our trade, correct? Wrong! Two problems present themselves:

  1. The contracts don't match, and

  2. This deal, if done earlier the Knicks utilise up all of their cap infinite, is a waste matter of resources

Randle + Payton + Bullock = $31 million exactly, which means we're curt by $527,586. Then shut, yet and then far. Nosotros can't swap DSJ for Bullock because then the Jazz would have too many point guards. We could swap Ellington for Bullock, merely so that means Utah is only saving $4,609,482. It'southward an improvement, only nosotros can do better. The solution: Theophilus Alphonso Pinson.

Yep, Theo Pinson and his $ane,701,593 team selection, which cannot be traded on typhoon nighttime, play a role here. The endgame of dumping Allonzo Trier finally comes into play. The Randle/Payton/Bullock/Pinson (who would be waived) package equals $32,701,593 and that gives Utah a cushier savings of $6,807,889 instead.

Why can't we make this official the moment free bureau begins? Because it's poor cap direction.

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As you tin see, the maximum amount of cap space the Knicks could create is $24,697,655. That's nevertheless a lot of coin, but nosotros can practice better hither also.

Scenario 5: The Prearranged, Over the Cap Bacon Cut

Everything we discussed in the previous scenario is applicable here except we're going to switch up our order of operations. Here's what we become once we guarantee Payton and Bullock's contracts and option up Pinson's deal earlier free bureau starts:

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Own't she a beaut?!

Nosotros at present have $eight,504,509 more in cap space that nosotros wouldn't have had if the first thing we did one time free bureau started was brand that merchandise. And so permit's pretend that nosotros've spent that $33,202,164 on a few free agents and a small salary dump, leading us to being capped out and still having the room exception at our disposal. Since the salary cap is a soft cap, we can go over it to make the trade with Utah as long equally the deal fits matching criteria. Fortunately, as I/we established, the desired bargain does.

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In example yous're wondering, information technology'south perfectly fine that the Knicks are in the negative with cap space with this trade. As long as the Knicks make trades that match, they tin go further into negative cap space too.

The Jazz, meanwhile, are in a higher place the salary cap yet all the same beneath the tax level. In addition to cutting Pinson, they would have to cut ii players on non-guaranteed contracts (Nigel Williams-Goss and Miye Oni every bit an example here).

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I don't know what the Knicks are going to do this offseason, but Utah sending some type of salary to New York simply makes too much sense not to come up to fruition. Facilitating the outlined trade package would save Utah $6,807,889 and leave them at $1,267,283 below the taxation level. The Jazz would take added depth through this trade and the 2020 draft and can sign a histrion using the MLE without having to worry most entering tax territory this yr. They could non attain all this if they but dumped Conley Jr. on the Knicks and peaced out, nor if they re-signed Clarkson and signed someone with the MLE.

If y'all call up Conley/Davis/a future protected first for Randle/Payton/Bullock/Pinson is a lopsided deal, I go it. Conley's no scrub but he's no leap chicken either, and his functioning and availability take dipped recently. Davis' deal isn't terrible, simply few teams can actually accept that deal. New York taking on those ii players — 1 of who is very undesirable — and their more expensive salaries should lead to decent compensation. Later on all, Randle, Payton, and Bullock can contribute to winning basketball if they're in the correct roles. Considering all three would come up off the bench, the value should increment considering how they will exist used. They're all overpaid, but Utah still saves coin this twelvemonth with the deal. Plus, all iii are effectively expiring free agents, every bit Randle's guarantee could exist shopped to another team if Utah has no interest in paying his deal.

A starting lineup of Mitchell/O'Neale/Ingles/Bogdanović/Gobert would exist exquisite for Utah, seeing as how that grouping had a internet rating of +13.7 in 570 minutes last flavour. Bringing Payton, Clarkson, Bullock, Randle, their offset round option, and the actor signed with the MLE off the bench makes them an improved squad without going into the luxury tax, especially before Utah might go into it in 2021-22.

There is, of class, a gamble that Utah does the easiest move and dumps Davis and an asset to a squad like New York. If this is the furthest a deal between the two teams goes, so be it. I would welcome it with open up arms depending on what that asset is. I just think that if Utah wants to relieve more than money, build a deeper team, and diversify their portfolio from an injury perspective, trading Conley Jr. as part of a bigger package makes the most sense.

Should Conley Jr. even so be on the tabular array for the Knicks, New York gets a playmaker who can make his teammates amend on offense, different by mercenaries at the lead guard spot. Conley Jr. is reunited with his former agent Leon Rose and onetime banana coaches Andy Greer (Memphis) and Bryant (Utah). Should the Knicks choose to continue Davis, he would serve as a corking mentor for Mitchell Robinson, seeing as how Davis was signed by the Nets specifically to aid mentor Jarrett Allen. Of class, the Knicks could prefer to retain Taj Gibson, since Tom Thibodeau is in the building, meaning Davis would then be waived; ii non-shooting bigs playing the role of mentor is one as well many.

Past dealing Randle, New York has a pristinely clean cap sheet in 2021. Their typhoon position wouldn't be besides afflicted by Conley Jr. either, seeing as how he's 33, his overall play seems to generally exist trending downward, the fact that he has but appeared in a little over half the possible regular season games possible the last three seasons, and the overall difficulty involved with likely playing division rivals for an even more than significant part of the twelvemonth. And if Conley Jr. sees a rejuvenation to the point where the Knicks defy the odds, that reflects well on the staff New York'south front office has assembled. That'south a win-win in my book.

Jeremy Cohen

Contributor. Host of KFS pod. Eternally a teenager. On March 12th, 2007, I wished Eddy Curry and Renaldo Balkman good luck in the playoffs. They proceeded to laugh at me. The Knicks then went 4-fifteen, missed the playoffs, and their careers never recovered.